Daily Market Outlook, April 21, 2026 

Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group

Global risk sentiment improved on Tuesday, with markets resuming their upward trajectory after a brief pause, as renewed optimism around potential US-Iran negotiations revived hopes for a diplomatic path in the Middle East ahead of the latest ceasefire deadline. The easing in geopolitical tension also prompted a pullback in oil prices. The MSCI All Country World Index rose 0.1%, recovering after Monday’s interruption to what had been its longest winning streak in five years. That earlier pause followed a volatile weekend that had cast doubt on the durability of peace efforts in the region. In Asia, equities moved higher, led by a renewed AI-driven technology rally, while South Korean stocks advanced to fresh record highs. US and European equity futures also pointed to a firmer open, suggesting that the positive tone in Asia could extend across developed markets. In commodities, the moderation in geopolitical risk weighed on traditional hedges. Gold fell 0.6% to around $4,800/oz, while silver declined 1.0%. Bitcoin also edged lower, trading near $75,750. Within Asia, technology shares outperformed decisively. The MSCI technology index rose 2.4%, taking its year-to-date gain to more than 38%. In the US, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index had earlier posted its 14th consecutive advance, marking its longest winning run since 2014 and underlining the continued strength of AI-linked equity leadership. In company-specific news, Apple shares fell in late US trading following the announcement that John Ternus would become the company’s new CEO.

Domestically, the UK labour statistics looked solid on the surface, but the details were more mixed. The unemployment rate fell to 4.9% in February, below the BoE’s 5.2% Q1 forecast, while headline average earnings growth was revised up to 3.8% 3m/y, modestly above expectations. However, private sector regular pay growth at 3.2% still looks soft relative to the BoE’s 3.5% projection, and the more timely HMRC payroll data were weaker, showing March employment down 11k and a sharp downward revision to February. The report also showed a decline in hours worked and the average work week, which tempers the signal from last week’s strong 0.5% m/m GDP print. For the BoE, the mix is not straightforward: pay growth looks a little less inflationary than expected, but the jobless rate suggests a tighter labour market. Regardless, the majority of the release remains pre-energy shock, limiting its relevance for near-term policy. 

Thursday’s UK public finances release will show whether the 2025–26 gilt financing programme ended in over- or underfunding, and whether that changes the DMO’s 2026–27 remit. At the Spring Forecast, the official assumption was for a £5bn overfund to roll into 2026–27. Any revision to that carryover would feed through to the new remit, which is currently centred on £252.1 billion in gilt sales. Earlier data had briefly suggested scope for a much larger overfund, with the 2025–26 cash requirement running more than £20bn below the pre-forecast path. But that looked overstated, and the February public finances figures largely confirmed it, narrowing the gap to around £9bn. On a simple read, that would imply the carryover should have been closer to £9bn rather than £5bn, pointing to a potential £4bn downward revision to the 2026–27 remit, assuming the March data are broadly neutral versus the Spring Forecast. Even so, that would be a modest technical adjustment rather than a major supply event and is more likely to come through Treasury bill assumptions rather than any meaningful cut to gilt sales. In short, expectations for a large downward remit revision look overstated. Even if a change comes on Thursday, it is likely to be small and operational rather than market-moving.

Overnight Headlines

• German ZEW Outlook Set To Slide Amid Hormuz Strait Blockades

• Vance To Travel To Pakistan On Tuesday For Iran Talks, Sources Say

• Oil Slips As Iran Set To Attend Negotiations With US In Pakistan

• Trump Aims To Seal Iran Deal, Says Truce Extension Unlikely

• Three Ships Including An Iranian Vessel Attempt Hormuz Transits

• Apple Names Ternus As Next CEO, With Cook Becoming Chairman

• Amazon To Invest An Additional $5B In Anthropic

• Anthropic And Amazon Agree $100B AI Infrastructure Deal

• Adobe Launches AI Suite For Corporate Clients As Competition Heats Up

• WhatsApp Joins Instagram In Selling New Premium Subscriptions

• Japan Scraps Most Weapons Export Limits In Boost To Arms Sector

• Bank Of Korea’s New Chief Signals Flexible Policy Amid Oil Risks

• NZ Inflation Above 1-3% Target Ahead Of Fuel Shock

• New Zealand Firms Gloomy As Iran War Hits Costs, Profitability

• New Zealand Prime Minister Luxon Wins Leadership Confidence Vote

• JPM To Invest In Europe And UK In Expanded $1.5T Security Initiative

• Hedge Funds Beef Up Bearish Dollar Bets As Haven Demand Sinks

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut 

(1BLN+ represents larger expiries and is more magnetic when trading within the daily ATR.)

• EUR/USD: 1.1725 (EU1.92b), 1.1500 (EU1.8b), 1.1800 (EU1.49b) 

• USD/JPY: 156.00 ($1.04b), 157.25 ($300m) 

• AUD/USD: 0.7100 (AUD701m), 0.7200 (AUD593.1m), 0.7050 (AUD566.2m) 

• USD/CNY: 6.7700 ($600m) 

• GBP/USD: 1.3300 (GBP1.08b) 

• USD/KRW: 1470.00 ($661.6m), 1400.00 ($630m), 1455.00 ($482m) 

• USD/CAD: 1.3735 ($626m)

CFTC Positions as of April 10, 2026: 

• Equity fund speculators increase S&P 500 CME net short position by 186,638 contracts to 414,897

• Equity fund managers raise S&P 500 CME net long position by 71,259 contracts to 1,011,108

• Speculators increase CBOT US 5-year Treasury futures net short position by 72,816 contracts to 1,625,745

• Speculators trim CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures net short position by 23,259 contracts to 800,365

• Speculators trim CBOT US 2-year Treasury futures net short position by 8,209 contracts to 1,703,806

• Speculators increase CBOT US UltraBond Treasury futures net short position by 40,440 contracts to 300,823

• Speculators increase CBOT US Treasury bonds futures net short position by 15,120 contracts to 74,116

• Bitcoin net long position is 2,193 contracts

• Swiss franc posts net short position of -34,097 contracts

• British pound net short position is -54,724 contracts

• Euro net long position is 26,018 contracts

• Japanese yen net short position is -83,208 contracts

Technical & Trade Views

SP500

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 7000 Target 7200

• Below 6950 Target 6850

DXY

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 98.60 Target 99

• Below 98.50 Target 97

EURUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 1.1720 Target 1.19

• Below 1.1690 Target 1.1590

GBPUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 1.3430 Target 1.3610

• Below 1.34 Target 1.3290

USDJPY 

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 158.50 Target 161

• Below 157.30 Target 156.50

XAUUSD

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 4600 Target 5000

• Below 4500 Target 4350

BTCUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 73.5k Target 80k

• Below 72.6k Target 70.5k