Institutional FX Insights: JPMorgan Trading Desk Views 2/3/26
1) Core regime call: stay defensive, fade relief rallies (near term)
Market is in reduce-risk mode, with geopolitics + heavy US data (ISM/NFP) keeping volatility elevated.
USD dips likely to be bought while uncertainty persists.
Action: Prioritize sell-rallies in USD shorts / buy-dips in USD until de-escalation is clear.
EUR (vulnerable): watch the MA “tripwire” zone
2) EURUSD: key support cluster is the trade trigger
Oil/gas spike is EUR-negative (growth drag).
Systematic de-risking risk if EURUSD breaks key MAs:
1.1699 (100dma)
1.1668 (200dma)
Next: 1.1573 (YTD low)
Action:
Below 1.1668 (daily close): bias to add EURUSD shorts / reduce EUR longs targeting 1.1573.
Hold above 1.1699: treat as range/chop, keep size smaller, focus on crosses.
3) Hedge expression: EURJPY over USDJPY (cleaner risk framing)
Writer already crossed USDJPY into EURJPY to keep JPY-long core while reducing USD leg noise.
Action: If you want to express “EUR is the funding currency again” + geopolitics, short EURJPY into rallies (resistance noted near 185).
GBP (hit on energy shock): sell rallies in cable
4) GBPUSD: rallies are for fading into 1.3400/40
Two forces: deleveraging + commodity spike (historically GBP-negative).
Local UK headlines low priority vs geopolitics + USD.
Action (levels):
Sell GBPUSD rallies 1.3400–1.3440 (tactical).
Support: 1.3280/90.
Cross: 0.8800 resistance in EURGBP (GBP weakness risk if it breaks higher).
JPY (messy): keep JPY longs but expect pain around oil
5) USDJPY: watch cloud/pivot—risk of official sensitivity if it runs
Oil-importer channel offsets safe-haven bid.
Key technical levels cited:
Cloud top/bottom: 156.38
Major pivot: 157.80/158.00
Action:
If daily close < 156.38: increases confidence to hold/add JPY longs (risk-off dominance).
If > 157.80/158.00: keep exposure via options or crosses (EURJPY) rather than adding spot JPY.
CHF (contained): stay flat unless risk goes systemic
6) EURCHF: SNB jawboning = they’re policing pace, not direction
EURCHF dip to 0.9028 was brief; SNB says ready to intervene.
Action: Stay flat CHF unless we see a true risk-off cascade; don’t chase CHF strength into SNB rhetoric.
Commodity FX: prefer exporters on dips; beware “de-escalation snapback”
7) NOK: supported while oil risk premium persists, but fragile to headlines
EURNOK break of 11.2000 is technically NOK-bullish, but note warns this may not be durable if de-escalation.
Action: Buy NOK on pullbacks while conflict risk remains; run tighter stops because headlines can reverse NOK quickly.
8) CAD: oil helps, but domestic growth weak = don’t overstay
JPM is modestly long USDCAD (Canada soft growth + USMCA risk), despite CAD oil beta.
Action: Prefer CAD strength via crosses vs EUR/JPY rather than outright USDCAD shorts unless risk cools and data turns.
9) AUD/NZD: AUD better on crosses; keep AUDNZD long bias
AUD initially risk-off weak, then commodity-supported; NZD disadvantaged as energy importer.
Action: Express commodity/terms-of-trade theme with AUDNZD longs; avoid AUDUSD hero trades if risk sentiment deteriorates.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!