Deal in Focus

Oil prices are on watch today with the futures market rebounding slightly after tow days of firm selling. Plenty of uncertainty remains over US/Iran peace talks, despite Trump’s insistence that a deal is now close to being made. Trump said earlier in the week that negotiations are down to their final stages, signalling optimism that deal would be agreed and the war could be concluded in coming weeks. Iran is reportedly reviewing the latest proposal from the US but has not yet responded. Trump has said he will give Iran a couple of days for a response, leaving plenty of volatility risk over the weekend as traders await that outcome.

Projected Market Impact

If Iran agrees to this latest proposal, oil prices should come under heavy selling pressure, expected to drop by around 20%-30%. If Iran doesn’t agree to the proposal outright but suggests some amendments, this should see oil prices cooling slightly, stoking optimism that deal can still be agreed. However, if Iran outright rejects the proposal and no immediate amendments are suggested, this could see oil prices spiking higher as traders fear a fresh US military strike against Iran and the prospect of a return to war.

Technical Views

Crude

The sell off in crude has seen the market slip back below the 101.69 level with price now stalled at 95.06 support. Bearish momentum studies suggest risks of a fresh push lower with the triangle lows and 84.60-level the next support zone to watch if we do break lower.