Daily Market Outlook, February 26, 2026 

Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group

Munnelly’s Macro Minute…

Global equities, which had shown signs of recovery following the recent "AI scare trade" that unsettled Wall Street earlier this week, began to falter as momentum waned. Investor sentiment appeared cautious in response to Nvidia's earnings report, even though the company exceeded expectations. Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.3%, while European stock futures indicated modest declines at market open. Nvidia, after an initial surge in after-hours trading, gave up most of its gains, rising just 0.2%. Meanwhile, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.9%, though regional semiconductor stocks faced some downward pressure. Nvidia’s latest earnings release raised concerns about a potentially overheated artificial intelligence market. Nevertheless, the company’s stock has advanced 4.9% this year, outperforming both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. In other financial developments, the dollar extended its decline for a second straight session. Gold edged closer to $5,200 per ounce as traders assessed Middle East tensions and the implications of U.S. tariffs on global trade. Bitcoin dropped 1%, while U.S. Treasuries gained, pushing the 10-year yield down by one basis point to 4.04%. In currency markets, the Japanese yen strengthened 0.3% to 155.91 per dollar, with shorter-term government bond yields also rising. The yen led gains among Group-of-10 currencies after Bank of Japan board member Hajime Takata reaffirmed his support for additional rate hikes. Separately, President Trump is expected to issue an order in the coming days to raise global tariff rates to 15% "where appropriate". According to U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, the move aims to align with existing trade agreements with partner countries.

The final Q4 German GDP figures remained unchanged at 0.3% q/q and 0.6% y/y (0.4% y/y adjusted for working days), showing modest growth but signalling a shift in composition. Private consumption rose to 0.5% q/q (1.8% y/y), supported by strong government spending (1.1% q/q) and capital investment (1.0% q/q). However, net trade and inventories dragged growth, with domestic demand driving imports. Consumer spending reached 53.4% of GDP, its highest since 2010 and above pre-Covid levels. Government spending and investment continue to rise, driven by fiscal programmes. This marks a shift from trade dependency to domestic demand-led growth, with further improvements expected as trade drags diminish by 2025.

Next week brings a slew of tier-one data releases. Starting on Monday, we’ll see the final manufacturing PMI figures, followed by services and composite readings on Wednesday. In the UK, Monday will feature money and credit data, while Thursday’s February Decision Makers Panel will take centre stage. Although inflation is expected to drop significantly in the first half of the year, the Bank of England remains focused on wage pressures, relying heavily on this survey to confirm a moderating trend. A further decline in expected wages (previously at 3.5%) would be a positive signal. For the Eurozone, key data includes PPI and unemployment figures on Wednesday, retail sales on Thursday, and German factory orders alongside the final Q4 GDP reading for the Eurozone on Friday. In the US, alongside the PMI numbers, we’ll see ISM surveys on Monday and Wednesday and the Beige Book on Wednesday. However, the spotlight will be on jobs data, starting with Challenger and ADP reports on Wednesday, followed by initial jobless claims on Thursday and the February payrolls report on Friday. Last month’s non-farm payrolls showed a solid headline increase of 130k, though gains were primarily in health and social care, with benchmark revisions lowering total employment by over a million. Survey data continues to suggest soft labour market conditions, with a 60k median job gain expected this time. The unemployment rate will also be closely watched, especially after its recent decline. On the central bank front, the BoE’s Taylor is set to speak at a Norges conference on monetary policy regulation on Monday. Meanwhile, Fed speakers will maintain their usual cadence throughout the week, and the ECB will feature remarks from Lagarde on both Monday and Thursday.

Overnight Headlines

• Iran, US Resume Nuclear Negotiations: Trump’s War Clock Ticks

• Zelenskiy, Trump Discuss Next Steps For Peace Talks In Call

• IMF Says Tariff Uncertainty Risks Hampering ‘Buoyant’ US Economy

• Bank Of England’s Dovish Shift Heralds March Cut

• BoJ Ueda To Examine Impact Of Dec, Earlier Hikes

• BoJ Hawk Calls For More Hikes After Takaichi Nominates Doves

• Yen Outperforms G-10 Peers On BoJ Takata’s Hawkish Speech

• Bank Of Korea Holds Rates Steady, Lifts Growth Forecast

• Nvidia Beats Back Bubble Fears With Record $68B In Q4 Sales

• Salesforce Commits $50B Buybacks As Rev Guidance Falls Short

• Paramount Beats Earnings Estimates Amid Warner Bros Bidding War

• Shell In Talks With Adnoc Over Australia LNG Stake Sale

• Gold Steadies As Traders Focus On US Tariffs And Iran Talks

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut 

(1BLN+ represents larger expiries and is more magnetic when trading within the daily ATR.)

• EUR/USD: 1.1700 (1.1BLN), 1.1750 (651M), 1.1765 (566M), 1.1785-90 (858M)

• 1.1795-00 (3.52BLN), 1.1810-15 (1.3BLN), 1.1820-30 (3.1BLN)

• 1.1835-40 (586M), 1.1865-75 (1.41BLN)

• USD/JPY: 156.15-20 (355M), 156.40-50 (300M), 156.95-00 (485M)

• EUR/JPY: 182.20 (2.3BLN), 183.05 (360M)

• USD/CHF: 0.7700 (371M), 0.7850 (491M). EUR/CHF: 0.9100 (371M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3430-40 (378M), 1.3450-65 (785M)

• EUR/GBP: 0.8700-10 (369M)

• AUD/USD: 0.7025-35 (789M), 0.7070-80 (636M), 0.7090-00 (377M)

• 0.7145-50 (1.1BLN)

• USD/CAD: 1.3550-60 (1.8BLN), 1.3565-75 (508M), 1.3580-90 (1.22BLN)

• 1.3595-05 (814M), 1.3630-40 (1.31BLN), 1.3645-55 (1.2BLN)

• 1.3665-75 (320M), 1.3695-05 (2.6BLN), 1.3715 (323M)

Technical & Trade Views

SP500

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bearsih

• Above 6900 Target 7040

• Below 6900 Target 6750

EURUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 1.1860 Target 1.1960

• Below 1.1730 Target 1.1570

GBPUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 1.3635 Target 1.3760

• Below 1.36 Target 1.3435

USDJPY 

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 155.50 Target 157.50

• Below 155 Target 152

XAUUSD

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 5150 Target 5325

• Below 5100 Target 4930

BTCUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 71k Target 75k

• Below 70k Target 53k